Point Guard is perhaps the position with the most high-level depth in the NBA, and this has been especially apparent among this year's potential playoff teams, all of whom have high quality point guards. I chose to include players on teams in the play-in mix, such as the Nets and Hawks, but not players that have been injured for the whole year that otherwise could have made it, such as Jamal Murray. These are all the players that at their very best have a decent argument to be the best guard in the NBA, so players I have ranked just below, such as Jrue Holiday, Mike Conley and Kyle Lowry barely missed the cut. Without further ado, here is my top six:
#6: Chris Paul
Chris Paul is probably the most well-rounded passer on this list. He leads the NBA in assist ratio, ranks second only to Jordan McLaughlin in Assist-to-turnover ratio, and was arguably the most important factor in driving the Phoenix Suns to the best record in the NBA prior to his recent wrist injury. He is also arguably the only defensive difference maker in this list, and although he may have lost a step compared to his athletic prime, Paul remains one of the NBA's premier defensive options for guarding opposing teams' primary ball handlers. The biggest thing holding CP3 back from the very top tier of this list is his reduced effectiveness in scoring. Although he will probably ramp up his scoring going into the playoffs, Paul is having the lowest scoring rate of his career, and what has been most worrying is his seeming reluctance to shoot threes.
Arguably his greatest asset as a passer is his combination of both willingness and understanding, and calibration of risk/reward ratio- he knows here that the window for a lob is extremely small, but the reward of such a pass is extremely high, and so he throws a pass most other players wouldn't even see.
As we saw in last year's playoffs, Paul's ability to generate his own offence through his midrange game remains absolutely elite- he can confidently take this shot against almost any player in the league, and his understanding of how much space he needs to take this shot is unparalleled.
Despite his resilient scoring game, I have questions about Paul's ability to generate high level offence- in this clip his sapped athleticism is apparent, and going into a playoffs at age 36, it will be interesting to see how much self-generated offence Paul can create outside of mid-range pull-ups.
#5: Kyrie Irving
Although we only have a small statistical sample size this year, Kyrie Irving is having an incredible offensive season this year, averaging 27.1 PPG on elite 60% True Shooting (TS%). As an individual scorer, he remains perhaps the best Point Guard in the league, with the best handle in the league allowing him to create huge amounts of space from defenders, the best finishing package in the league, and elite shooting, both from mid-range and 3-point land. Ignoring all of the off-court issues this year, Kyrie is perhaps the most durable, versatile scorer in this list, values which become exponentially more important in the playoffs. His advanced stats this year are great, and his high level of undeniability- that defences cannot stop him from getting what he wants even with specific scheming and scouting- further raises his playoff value. For me, what stops Kyrie from being near the very top of the list is his weakness as a passer- he does not generate a high amount of good-quality shots for others, and although he has flashed as a passer this year, it is not a consistent option for Irving.
These finishes evidence how incredible Kyrie is at attacking the rim- he is comfortable going either direction, finishing with either hand, and has a great understanding of how much space he needs to get his shot off at the basket.
Although he doesn't have the vision or understanding of other elite passers in this list, his elite ball control, and the attention he draws from the defence, can still allow him to create some incredibly high-value looks for teammates, such as this audacious pass to an open Seth Curry.
#4: Ja Morant
Morant is perhaps the most difficult player to rank going into this year's playoffs. He has the least playoff experience of anyone on the list, his only series being a gentleman's sweep against the Jazz in last year's playoffs, although he did perform well in that series, going against the best rim protector in the league in Rudy Gobert. Morant has established himself as the best Point Guard in the league at attacking the rim, and he has developed a good floater game to keep defenders from fully loading up under the basket, however for him to take the next leap he will need to upgrade his jump shot, especially from behind the arc. Morant is a career 32.5% 3 point shooter, and he shot 32.3% in last year's playoffs- serviceable numbers, but low enough that they provide an easy place for playoff defences to concede to him- similar to the problems Giannis Antetokounmpo dealt with for years in the playoffs. While Morant is clearly a much superior shooter to Giannis, he will still have to answer those shooting questions coming into this year's post-season.
In this clip, a number of Ja's best skills are on display- his speed, his handle, his creativity, and ultimately his body control; the combination of which make him an absolutely devastating offensive threat in both half- and full-court situations.
Here, we see his decision making in the half-court. The horns set allows him to easily pick which player he wants to attack in Atlanta's defensive unit, and in a split-second he reads the Capela-Gallinari switch and identifies Danilo Gallinari as the weaker link, before immediately overpowers the helpless Gallinari with his athleticism for an easy layup at the rim. While in the playoffs there won't be defenders this weak on the floor, and defences will do more to protect their weak links, this type of athleticism combined with elite decision-making will help Morant paper over questions about his shooting in the 2022 Playoffs.
#3: Trae Young
Statistically, Trae Young is doing his best Steph Curry impression this year, with an equal Value over Replacement Player (VORP) of 4.3, better Offensive Box Plus-Minus of 6.9, and a second (only behind Curry) TS% of 59.8. Beyond the stylistically inaccurate comparisons to Steph Curry which have been made so often, (he plays more like a Steve Nash type of point guard), Young is one of the best passers going into this year's playoffs. While he doesn't have the the assist/turnover mastery of Chris Paul, or the height of Luka Dončić, he makes up for it with his incredible vision and ability to generate home-run plays for his teammates. He is the best alley-oop passer in the league, and his passing juices the offensive abilities of Atlanta's big men like Collins, Okongwu and Capela, as well as of elite spot-up options like Huerter and Bogdanovic. His scoring is also just as elite, however, with an extremely tight and creative handle, electrifying rim-attacks, top-tier foul drawing, a great floater package, and decent three-point volume and efficiency. The only thing that holds Trae out of Tier 1 is his middling efficiency on 3-point shots, and his god-awful defence.
In a recent game against the Pacers, Young put on an absolute passing clinic in the first quarter, racking up 8 dimes in the quarter alone.
Although this is a relatively easy 2-on-1 fast break, Young's Jokić-style manipulation of the defender here is still extremely impressive to watch, and typical of the type of plays he makes on a nightly basis.
Ignore the announcer's butchering of 'Okongwu' here and enjoy Trae's incredible vision to spot this full-court lob opportunity from way inside his own half. This kind of home-run passing is incredibly valuable to a team's offence, and I would argue that Young is the best transition passer in the league at present.
#2 Luka Dončić
Statistically, Luka easily has the best argument for being #1 on this list. He is the most 'heliocentric' player in the NBA this year, leading the league with an absurd 37% usage rate, and although the Mavericks have had a relatively 'quiet' season so far in terms of offensive efficiency compared to prior years, this has likely been a product of their improved focus on defence under Jason Kidd. Nate Duncan recently called Dončić the hardest player to scheme for in the NBA, and it is clear that his ability to generate extremely efficient shots for himself and others is unmatched among point guards going into this years' playoffs. He is ruthless at hunting opposing teams' weakest players in a switch, and he his passing 'toolkit', with the advantage of his height, is also unmatched among this list, with his 6'7 frame allowing him to see over the defence and spray skip passes to Reggie Bullock or Dorian Finney-Smith in the corners. The addition of Spencer Dinwiddie makes the Maverickss even more dangerous going into this years' playoffs, with him and Jalen Brunson providing outlets for Luka to rest for a few possessions on offence, or even create some catch and shoot opportunities for him moving off the ball, although this is something he has been reluctant to do so far in his career.
Luka self-created offence:
In their recent win against the Nets, Luka relentlessly hunted Brooklyn's bigs, primarily Andre Drummond, and attacked him over and over. This was my favourite move, as he doesn't settle for the jumpshot, and has the slower Drummond reaching for air with a lovely hesitation move in the post.
Luka's favourite move against the switch is a pull-up 3 pointer, and while this is certainly an efficient shot for him, at times it can feel like a win for the defence, when he is so elite at attacking scrambling defences and generating great looks through alley-oops or skip passes to shooters.
#1 Stephen Curry
Although he is having a 'down' shooting year, Stephen Curry still leads all point guards in true shooting, at an elite 60.1%, which is nearly +6% relative to the position! His all-time 3-point shooting means that even when his shot isn't falling, he is still an extremely valuable offensive player, and his gravity has been well-documented. His on-off splits are typically some of the greatest of all time, and while this is also influenced by the Warriors' failure to pick up adequate back-up guards, combined with Kerr's insistence to continue running the 'beautiful game' system rather than simple pick and roll sets, it is also most obviously because of Steph Curry's incredible offensive value. Although he has fallen off somewhat this year statistically, with the lowest BPM, VORP and Win Shares per 48 since 2012-13, these statistics are still elite among point guards, and I feel confident in saying that as long as he is healthy going into the playoffs, he will yet again be the most valuable Point Guard in the league. Some examples of his gravity are explored below to highlight his abnormal impact as an offensive player.
Here the threat of a Curry pull-up 3 is so great it brings three defenders to him, opening up the easy pass to a cutting Bjelica- Curry's on-ball shooting threat creates easy looks for his teammates, made possible also by his elite handle and above-average vision and creativity for the point guard position too.
This play highlights truly what makes him special compared to all the other players on this list. His work rate and motor, combined with his IQ and shooting ability make him the most dangerous off-ball player in the league. Here, two players hesitate to leave him on the backdoor screen, creating an easy look for Looney, and there is no other Point Guard of this calibre that is willing to do the 'dirty work' like this, and no one else would be as effective at it either, considering he holds by far the most weight as a shooter.
