This article is examining which rookies look like they are going to be the best going into the future. This is not a 'Rookie of the Year' award discussion, but rather, which prospect looks like they are going to be the most valuable over the next 5 years. In making this list, I was originally planning on doing a 'top-5', but on further watching film, I could not honestly see the highest star end upside for players like Franz Wagner, Herb Jones, Josh Giddey and many other rookies who are having great years, and undoubtedly will have long and successful NBA careers, but who I just don't see as on the level as these four players, who incidentally were all taken in the top four of last year's draft. I chose to rank these players in terms of who I think will ultimately be the best player, but they are all relatively close to one another, and there are great arguments to be made for Barnes over Green, or Mobley over Cunningham as well.
#4: Scottie Barnes
Barnes is definitely the most unconventional player in this list, and that makes him somewhat difficult to place. His game is predicated on hustle- both offensively and defensively, as well as an array of tricky off-balance finishes, weird hooks and flips, and a nice post game. He is having a Rookie of the Year-quality campaign statistically- it is clearly a two horse race between him and Mobley, and impact metrics already see him as an above average NBA player, which is unsurprising considering he is playing 36 minutes per game on a playoff team, but places him in much better ground this season than a player like Jalen Green.
Here you can see the type of motor and hustle that make Barnes a special prospect, his strength and athletic tools, and sheer desire to get the ball produce two offensive rebounds and eventually result in the foul for Barnes. It is plays like these that make the Raptors the second best offensive rebounding team in the NBA, and Barnes has been a big factor behind this, grabbing 2.7 offensive boards per game!
Defensively, Scottie has fit the Raptors swarming, switching scheme perfectly, and he has great help instincts- aware of threats and constantly looking to make plays off the ball. He already has a great highlight reel of ripping ball-handlers in the half-court, and although at times his feet look slow when pressuring up at half-court, I think he will be a very strong off and on-ball defender in the future, and like Mobley he is already pretty good on the defensive side of the floor, although I don't see him having Mobley's DPOY-level upside.
Here, he sees Cameron Payne driving into traffic, and positions himself extremely well to snatch the kick-out pass and ignite the Raptors' transition game.
What holds me back from placing him higher on the list is his lack of shooting. We have seen athletic, non-shooting wings achieve success recently in Ben Simmons and Giannis Antetokounmpo, but Barnes has less length and explosiveness than both of those athletes, and I worry that if his shot continues to be an issue, particularly from three-point range, that he could struggle as an offensive engine, and lack of shooting is particularly damaging for role players who ultimately clog driving lanes for the teams' primary creators. Unlike Simmons and Antetokounmpo, however, he has already shown flashes of a good midrange game, particularly in the paint and closer to the basket. In this clip below, he creates space with his strength and steps back for the confident mid-range look that swishes clean through the hoop. If he can expand this shooting and make it a larger part of his offence, then he could potentially be a future all-NBA level creator.
#3: Jalen Green
Statistically, Jalen Green has been bad this year, ranking 397th in Estimated Plus-Minus, and has clearly been one of the most damaging players in the NBA. But do you know which other combo guard with great physical tools and athleticism had a horrible rookie year? Anthony Edwards. While they are not necessarily similar as overall players, I see their future trajectories in very similar lights. In their rookie years, both had very similar shooting splits, Edwards being the slightly better 2-point shooter, and Green better from 3. Both also had horrendous first halves of the season, and then improved a lot more after the All-Star break. While Green doesn't have the defensive potential of Edwards, I think he will be a better shooter, and I think he has at least definite All-NBA upside- he is averaging 31.2 points per game over his last 5 on 42% shooting from 3- a very small sample size but definitely a flash of what he can be as an offensive player.
Here Green's stepback game is on full display, which if he continues to shoot a good percentage on will be an important weapon in his future for beating switches, and if defences have to continue respecting and fearing his shot, will open up driving lines for his elite speed and athletic abilities.
Here, we see some nice patience coming out of the dribble hand off (DHO), as he waits for the play to develop, uses the screen twice, and ultimately sees an opening against some poor Wolves defence for the and-1.
Ultimately, although Green has been by far the worst of these four rookies this year, he has shown enough potential with his shooting and athleticism, for me to rank him third going forward.
#2: Evan Mobley
Evan Mobley's greatest strength this season and as a prospect going forward is his incredible defence. He has been the best defensive rookie of this class (sorry, Herb Jones), and his rim protection numbers are incredible-let alone for a rookie. Many have posited that he is the best defensive rookie since Tim Duncan, and whether or not this is true, the fact that he is being compared to one of the best rookies of all time highlights how great he has been on that end of the floor. While he does benefit from playing alongside another great defensive big in Jarrett Allen who can take most of the more 'bruiser' style centres, masking Mobley's weakness as a post defender, it is clear that Mobley has clear DPOY potential in the near future.
Here, his length and timing are on display as he reaches the top of the square to absolutely stifle this reverse layup attempt, highlighting his ability as a rim protector.
This play highlights both his greatest strength and greatest weakness as a defender, getting outmuscled under the rim and giving away the offensive rebound, but then absolutely swallowing up this drive by one of the NBA's premier slashing guards in Zach LaVine, doing so without fouling.
His offensive game and development are much larger questions than his defence- he has shown good touch and feel as a post scorer and passer, and has flashed in very small samples as an off-the-bounce driver in late shot-clock situations.
Here, he shows off some nice strength and a smooth spin in the post into a short fadeaway, highlighting his coordination and ability to read defenders in the low block, abilities that will be useful if he wants to develop into a dominant post-scorer in the future.
Here his motor creates a high-value offensive opportunity, as he relentlessly battles for position against a mismatch, and eventually creates an easy layup at the rim by spinning off of Dosunmu.
However, I have questions about his ability to be a high-volume offensive hub- his shooting has been disappointing this year, especially from beyond the arc, and if he is to become a truly elite two-way player in the future, he will probably have to bulk out enough to consistently play centre, and improve his offensive skillset enough to become a consistent primary option for a playoff team. Overall however, the future seems extremely bright for Mobley, and I see him being an incredibly valuable second or third option on a championship team, and a DPOY-level defensive anchor.
#1: Cade Cunningham
Statistically, Cunningham has also had a relatively poor campaign this season, particularly the first couple months of the season, in which he couldn't make anything from 3, and was bad around the basket too. What has really impressed me however, and ultimately what makes him the best prospect in this class is what he has shown as an offensive playmaker and primary option in this recent stretch of games. He has shown an incredibly high-level understanding of pick-and-roll operation, never allowing himself to be rushed, and having a nice three-level scoring game complemented by very good vision too. Despite incredibly poor spacing and without even an alley-oop roll threat, Cunningham has proved successful in this area- in their recent win over the 76ers, Cunningham schooled the Sixers drop coverage repeatedly, despite all-defence candidates Embiid and Thybulle typically being the defenders involved in the play.
Cade has also shown himself to be a very capable distributor, and has at times had moments of greatness as a passer, such as this incredible full-court dime against the Cavaliers, that only a few players in the league would have the audacity of throwing.
He has also shown great defensive potential, both as a perimeter defender, but also as a secondary rim protector, which has been the role he has been primarily asked to play by Detroit. He ranks second in players 6"7 and under in contests at the rim, and he allows a respectable 58% when he contests shots at the rim. He has great help instincts, and I think he will definitely be a positive defender in the future, if not an absolute difference maker; just a very solid, helpful defender. His great help instincts are on display in the clip below.
Ultimately, I think Cade will be the best offensive creator out of these four players, and with shot creation for yourself and others being the most valuable skill in the NBA, this was what ultimately pushed me over the edge to ranking Cade Cunningham as the player with the brightest future in last year's draft.
