The Timberwolves get home-court advantage here, which is big, but the Clippers are also looking extremely dangerous since the addition of Paul George, and they could be a great matchup for the Wolves. The Wolves' defence is predicated on rushing opposing teams and forcing a lot of turnovers- they rank 13th on defence for the season, but are 26th in defensive rebound rate, 29th in opponent free throw rate, and 17th in opponent eFG% for the season. The Wolves could struggle against the Clippers small-ball lineup, which excels at getting perimeter players driving at the rim- Towns remains statistically one of the worst rim-protectors in the NBA, and although Edwards and Beverley are much better than the Jazz perimeter defenders that got roasted by Utah's small-ball lineup in last year's playoffs, players like Beasley and Russell will be relentlessly hunted by the Clippers attack. Furthermore, I don't think the Wolves' scrambling defence will work against a veteran Clippers squad, particularly when they will have had time to scout and game-plan in much greater detail than the majority of regular season teams.
The Clippers in comparison have a much more solid defensive style, as the second best team at not fouling, and ranking only 15th in forcing turnovers, Zubac and Hartenstein are excellent rim protectors in base alignments, however the Wolves offence is not heavily predicated on getting to the rim, making the most three-pointers per game in the NBA, and I don't see the Clippers being able to slow down what has been the best offence in the NBA over the past three months.
So, if neither team is going to be able to slow the other down, who will win this offensive battle? Although the Clippers hold a 3-1 advantage in head-to-head matchups this year, the Clippers 3 wins came during a two week stretch in November, before the Wolves began their post-New Year offensive improvement. I see the Wolves just edging this one out, thanks to their overall offensive firepower and homecourt advantage, but I think this will be the closest game out of all potential play-in matchups.
Wolves:55% win probability
Although the Spurs hold the head-to-head matchup advantage 3-1, I don't see this game being particularly close. Jakob Poeltl is one of the best rim protectors in the NBA, but the Pelicans best players- McCollum, Ingram and even Valanciunas now, are primarily jumpshot-focused players that will remain largely unaffected by the Spurs' rim protection. In terms of the foul game, I see this game being relatively even- the Spurs are slightly better at not fouling; the Pelicans are slightly better at foul-drawing. Where I think the Pelicans will gain a major advantage is on the boards- the Spurs are 22nd in defensive rebounding, whereas the Pelicans are 5th in offensive rebound percentage- Valanciunas is an absolute menace in the offensive boards, and I don't think Poeltl will be able to handle him.
In terms of overall star power too, the Pelicans completely outclass the Spurs, I would argue that both McCollum and Ingram are better players the Spurs best player, Dejounte Murray; and even without the return of Zion Williamson, the Pelicans are an extremely dangerous team to face right now. After an 8-21 start, the Pelicans have turned their season around, and are playing much better with the addition of CJ McCollum. Not to completely overlook the Spurs though, they definitely have a decent chance to win, if Keldon Johnson, Murray and Poeltl play well, they can be a very solid team, but at the end of the day I just think star power, home-court and recent form places the Pelicans in a good position to win this game.
Pelicans: 70% Win probability
I honestly don't think this matchup will be very close either. The Clippers will have the best player on the floor if Paul George plays, and although the Pelicans have arguably the next best 2 in Brandon Ingram and C.J McCollum, the Clippers big wing defenders will give them serious problems in a play-in game. L.A has incredible wing depth, and the size to hold both Ingram and McCollum to inefficient nights- in their recent matchup they absolutely throttled Ingram into 3-11 from the field, including 1-7 from mid-range, while C.J fared slightly better with 7-18 in a losing effort. The clip below shows how hard New Orleans' stars had to work for their shots, and I don't think the Clippers will have any problems with the Pelicans defensively.
In terms of offence, the Clippers are the third best shooting team in the league, at 37%, while New Orleans are the worst shooting team not named the Thunder, Pistons or Magic, at a putrid 33.2%. This was on display in the Clippers recent blowout of the Pelicans, when they hit 21 three pointers, and carved up the Pelicans defence with spot-up open shots created by Reggie Jackson and Paul George, reliably knocked down by the Clippers reliable shooters, such as in the clip below.
Clippers win Probability: 80%