Jazz vs. Mavericks (2-2)
With Luka coming back in game 4, it felt for most people like the Mavericks were about to go up 3-1 and the series would be effectively over. Although for most of the game it felt like the Mavericks were in control, the loss of Maxi Kleber was huge, and they were unable to benefit from Powell's added size, missing key free-throws in the clutch, and the Mavericks still gave up 10 (!) offensive rebounds to Rudy Gobert. Gobert's offensive rebounding was a massive factor throughout the game, and although he was unable to convert his free throws, making just 9/18, the fouls he put on Kleber and multiple other Mavericks were a large part of the game. Luka Doncic was clearly on a minutes limit, but he looked great offensively pouring in 30 points on 23 shooting possessions- where you could see the impact of the injury was defensively, where he looked stiff and unable to stay in front of the Jazz's guards effectively, as well as completely dying on any Jazz screen that made contact with him.
Even though Mitchell misses this shot, Luka is clearly slow laterally and completely unable to affect what ends up being an extremely makeable shot for Mitchell.
Kleber fouling out was huge for the Jazz, allowing Gobert and Whiteside to more freely close off the paint, not having to worry about a white-hot shooting center in Kleber, as Josh Green and Dwight Powell don't offer anywhere near the same kind of threat spacing the floor, however the Jazz structural defensive issues remain: none of their perimeter players other than Danuel House and at times O'Neale in this series have offered any kind of resistance whatsoever.
This play is in my mind a microcosm both of game 4 and of the series moving forward: the lack of a shooting center allows Whiteside to freely help at the rim, but the complete lack of resistance by Bogdanovic (who to his credit played much harder defensively in game 4), allows Brunson a far too easy run at the rim, and the play ends as an and-1 for the Mavs. Going forward, I think that the Jazz are very much still in this series- Gobert's size and rim protection creates huge problems for the Mavericks both defensively and offensively, and Mitchell can definitely player better offensively than he has shown so far, however I see the Mavericks closing this one out in 6, if Luka remains healthy and Kleber is able to stay out of foul trouble the next couple of games.
Grizzlies vs. Timberwolves (2-2)
After an all-time playoff collapse in game 3, the Timberwolves managed to even up the series in game 4, in another wild finish, decided by some clutch Edwards and Towns free throws, when Beverley had left the door open with two missed free throws of his own. Where this series progresses moving forward will depend on whether the Timberwolves' shooting can continue to make up for their lack of physicality. As expected, the Grizzlies have dominated in the hustle and size categories- they are +4 in points per game off of turnovers, +1 in steals per game, +14 in paint points and +1.8 in second-chance points. The main reason the Timberwolves have been able to stay in this series is thanks to their massive shooting advantage, making 38% of three-pointers on 37.5 attempts per game, compared to the Grizzlies making 36.2% on just 32.5 attempts. Another key factor behind the Wolves' success in game 4 and (most of game 3) has been their defensive strategy on Ja Morant. Morant has been bad in 3 out of the 4 games this series, and has a 50.4 TS% compared to 57.5% in the regular season; his turnovers are up, and he has clearly not been the best player in this series, as would have been expected heading into it.
The Timberwolves have typically swarmed Morant whenever he has tried attacking the rim, and while this strategy has led to more open looks for his teammates- Morant had 15 assists in game 4, it has been highly effective at limiting Morant as an individual scorer, cratering his efficiency in this series.
For the Wolves, Towns has had an up-and-down series, and the Grizzlies have mostly tried to force him left as a driver, which he has adjusted to and started doing more as the series has progressed. In game 3, he was doubled on the catch throughout most of the game, and this severely limited his aggressiveness, as he mostly passed out of the doubles to make the 'right play' and create open shots for teammates. In game 4, however, despite the Grizzlies mostly employing the same strategies, Towns was far more aggressive in looking for his own shot, especially from 3-point range, and I think this is something the Wolves should look for more moving forward in this series, as it is much harder to double on the perimeter and limit his usage when he is taking shots from deep.
However, the Grizzlies have somewhat effectively exploited the presence of Jarred Vanderbilt as a highly offensively limited player, frequently doubling off of Vanderbilt on drivers, and on Towns in the post. In the clip below, Clarke is able to leave Vanderbilt open near the rim, and it leads to a contested airball, as Vanderbilt just doesn't provide the shooting or even vertical spacing to punish such strategies, and if the Grizzlies are able to continue freely leaving him then we might see Vanderbilt played off the floor in future games, despite his extreme importance as a defensive anchor and athletic physical presence.
Jaren Jackson Jr. has been extremely disappointing in this series, fouling an absolutely inordinate amount, which has limited both his playing time and defensive value. In game 4, he was effectively a non-factor, scoring just 7 points in 23 minutes, and his 2 blocks were offset by 4 turnovers and 6 fouls. While other Grizzlies like Desmond Bane, Dillon Brooks and Brandon Clarke have stepped up and played incredibly well, for the Grizzlies to win this series I think Jackson has to be a better player than he has shown so far. For the Timberwolves, they seem to have found something with the more aggressive 3-point shooting of Towns, and had they not choked in game 3, they very easily could be up 3-1 in this series. I think the Grizzlies will win game 5 at home, and then there will be a very high-pressure game 6 that will truly test the maturity and mettle of the young Wolves.
Sixers vs. Raptors (3-1)
The Embiid torn ligament in his thumb is what will shape the direction of this series- while the 76ers should certainly continue to be favoured to win the series moving forward, considering they only have to win one game, I don't think a Harden-led Sixers team creates enough problems for the Raptor's defence to score anywhere close to as efficiently as they had done in the first three games of the series.
In game 4, Harden was -14, the worst on the team, and it was primarily his offence that killed the Sixers- he was a bad 5-17 from the field including 2/8 from three, and both he and Embiid struggled taking care of the ball too, combining for 9 turnovers. For Harden, his turnovers resulted mainly from his struggles attacking the rim- committing multiple charges and turning the ball over when he tried passing out from drives. For Embiid, nearly all of his turnovers came from sloppy passes after being doubled on the catch in the post, and whether or not this was caused by the injury to his thumb, the doubles clearly bothered him much more on Saturday than at any other point in the series.
For the Raptors, Siakam was really able to get going in the non-Embiid minutes and on switches, able to use his physicality to get to the rim for high-percentage layups and hooks, as well as being more comfortable shooting over the Sixers other shorter, weaker defenders than Embiid. The video below is a perfect example, as he is able to overpower the lighter Niang, and Paul Reed's recovery help is not as threatening as Embiid's, and the play results in an and-1 for Siakam.
For the series, Siakam is 7-22 when guarded by Embiid, and the Sixers should look to go to this matchup more often defensively, as the Raptors do not have the secondary and tertiary creators to attack the Sixers' more vulnerable defenders, particularly if Fred VanVleet's injury rules him out of potential future games in the series. Overall, I think that the Sixers will win game 5 and end this series, but their performance in game 4, and particularly Embiid's injury, leaves me extremely worried about their performance in their likely second-round matchup against the defensively brilliant Miami Heat.
Suns vs. Pelicans (2-2)
Who could have predicted this series would be tied 2-2 after game 4? Yes, the Devin Booker injury certainly changed the series, but the Pelicans have just played like a really good team, and they look to have some real structural advantages moving forward in this series.
After game 4, the immediate takeaway is the struggles faced by Chris Paul, who has had 2 great games in this series, and 2 absolute stinkers. Looking at the shots he was taking, the majority of them were extremely makeable shots for Paul, although the long arms of Herb Jones did appear to affect a couple of his usually unassailable mid-range pull-ups. However, I'm not so worried by the 4 points, as he was still electric as a passer and generated a ton of open looks for the Suns shooters, who continued their poor shooting from game 3 to finish 7/27 on three-pointers for the night. What concerns me about Paul's night was the 8 shots, as he needs to be much more aggressive than this at generating his own offence, particularly when Cameron Payne is playing poorly and the shooters aren't hitting their shots.
The other largest takeaway from game 4 was the free throw disparity- the Pelicans had almost 3 times as many shots at the stripe as the Suns (42-15), and it is clear that despite the protestations of Monty Williams and Suns fans, the majority of these were just the Suns being unable to guard the Pelicans without fouling, as well as a lack of discipline. For example in the clip below, Valanciunas powers up through Ayton for a decent shot, but Ayton is too aggressive in his contest and the result is an obvious foul.
Moving forward in the series, the Suns should consider doubling Valanciunas post-ups, particularly when the weaker McGee is on the floor, as Valanciunas killed them in game 4, and because he has historically been a high turnover player when doubled in the past.
Brandon Ingram has continued to be awesome in the series, and was clearly the best player on the court in game 4- the Suns have struggled to contain his mid-range game coming off of screens, as despite being theoretically a very good matchup for the Suns, there is little Mikal Bridges can do to contest these shots once he has been screened off.
Moving forward in the series, I think the Suns will make a higher percentage of their threes, as historically very good shooters like Crowder, Shamet and Payne have just been missing wide-open looks, and I also think that the Suns will clean up some of their fouling, even if the Pelicans continue to have an advantage at the line moving forwards in the series. McGee's minutes should be reduced as much as possible, as despite playing well offensively he has been abysmal on defence, especially when he is replacing the rim protection and post-defence of Ayton. Even with these adjustments for the Suns, I don't think they have easy answers for Ingram's shotmaking, and the defence of Jones and Alvarado on Paul will probably continue to bother him. Ultimately, I think this series goes to a game seven, and I think it will be extremely close moving forward.
Bulls vs. Bucks (1-3)
This series is probably over. The Bucks seem to have completely solved the Bulls offence, and the Bulls are just playing too many players who are not playoff-calibre players. LaVine, DeRozan and Vucevic are their only real threats offensively, and they are all neutral-to-bad on defence, meaning that offensive liabilities like Alex Caruso, Patrick Williams and Ayo Dosunmu are forced onto the floor alongside them, which completely kills any kind of offensive flow that might have been created by the aforementioned 'big 3'. Particularly when Giannis was matched up with Caruso, the Bulls were getting absolutely nothing in the paint, with Giannis completely sagging off of Caruso to roam in the paint.
This play is just one of many examples of Giannis just completely ignoring Caruso to help in the paint, and the play ends with one of the Bulls' other non-shooters taking a corner 3 that the Bulls will happily live with. The Bulls take an incredible 19 corner 3s in game 4, and made just 5 of them which shows both how limited the Bulls' shooting is, but also how effective the Bucks' gameplan was, closing off the paint and mid-range to let bad shooters shoot.
Not only did they struggle on offence, but the Bulls were also bad defensively, letting Grayson Allen go off for 23 points on 10/12 shooting, and much of his shots came from just laughably bad defence like this clip of DeRozan just giving up on what should have been a relatively simple pindown from Antetokounmpo for Allen. After Caruso left the game due to injury in the second quarter the Bulls had no semblance of defensive playmaking, and although Vucevic has done a surprisingly good job on Giannis so far this series, Antetokounmpo was dominant in game 4, with 32 points on 22 shots, and I think the Bulls will continue to struggle both offensively and defensively moving forwards in this series, and that's why I would confidently take Bucks in 5.
Warriors vs. Nuggets (3-1)
This was a wild game 4! Unfortunately, I don't think the Nuggets, despite playing extremely well in this game proved that they have any chance of coming back from down 3-0, however it was very refreshing to see the extreme effort on both sides of the ball throughout the game by Denver, as well as the offensive execution from the Nuggets down the stretch. Draymond Green was +18 in his 34 minutes, and was clearly the only option the Warriors had to try and actually effectively slow Jokic down, however him fouling out at the end of the game allowed the Nuggets to pull ahead, despite some clutch heroics from Steph Curry.
For the Warriors, I wouldn't be too worried following this game moving forward in this series and the playoffs. Yes, it would've been nice to end this series and get some extra rest for the second round, but I think that they will comfortably beat whoever comes out of Wolves/Grizzlies, and the most important takeaway from this game for Golden State is that the trio of Green/Curry/Thompson look incredible, and if Jordan Poole can get back on track after a rough game, this team has a very good chance of going all the way to the finals, especially considering how weak Phoenix look right now.
Heat vs. Hawks (3-1)
This series also appears to be over. Trae Young shot 3/11 in game 4, and 10 of his shots were threes. The Heat switching defence has been absolutely stifling, not allowing Trae to get inside the arc and make plays for teammates- although he had 5 assists in this game they were matched with 5 turnovers, and he struggled to deal with their combination of size, speed and physicality. A key takeaway from this game for the Heat is that PJ Tucker at the 5 is a lineup that looks incredibly viable, and really unlocks Jimmy Butler’s offensive creation, by allowing him to be surrounded by four shooters. The clip below really highlights this, as four Heat shooters space out to the weak side, giving Butler an incredible amount of space to work with, and then Collins thinks about helping, but is scared off by the potential of an Oladipo three, and Butler finishes the play easily in the paint.
Defensively too, this lineup looked extremely solid, with PJ Tucker able to effectively switch out on perimeter players similarly to how he played back in Houston. This play below is a key example of this, as he absolutely eviscerates Young’s drive to the basket, and I think this lineup is something the Heat can go to in future series when they need to generate offence. One thing I do worry about however is the lack of rim protection, because the Heat shooters in this lineup like Strus and Herro are not especially stout perimeter stoppers, which could lead to easy finishes at the rim for a team with more secondary creators who can attack the rim than the Hawks. I think the Heat close this out easily in 5.
The only series that hasn't played 4 games yet is Nets-Celtics, but I think we all know where that series is headed- Celtics in 4.
Great article.
Most series seem to be hardly fought and not any sweeps, Boston could though. Maybe when the playoffs goes into the Conference finals or the NBA finals the condition of the teams may play a factor on who wins the Championship. More games, more chance of injury and wear and tear because of the long season
Yeah I think we will definitely lose a couple of contenders to injury in the coming rounds, and we may have potentially already lost Phoenix and Milwaukee depending on when Booker/Middleton can return and how tough their 2nd round matchup is