We are down to just 4 teams! Although the two game 7s were relatively disappointing for neutral fans due to the lack of competitiveness, they have created two fascinating matchups heading into the penultimate round of the playoffs.
Golden State Warriors vs. Dallas Mavericks
This might be considered a "hot take", but I absolutely favour the Mavericks heading into this series. The most important aspect of this series, I think, will be the Mavericks ability to hunt out and isolate the Warriors' weakest defensive players, which they can do with any of their three primary guards, and Brunson and Dončić so far in these playoffs have proven themselves to be some of the best 'mismatch killers' in the playoffs so far. Against the Suns, Luka showed his preference to isolate against their bigs, especially DeAndre Ayton, whether posting him up or stepping back for threes, he seemed extremely comfortable in this matchup.
This could make Kevon Looney extremely tough to play for the Warriors, as his footspeed is not what it was a couple years ago, and Luka will cook him any time they get matched up. Brunson, on the other hand against the Suns and Jazz showed himself to be extremely comfortable when matched up against other small guards in the paint, and I think that both Jordan Poole, who has been terrible on defence, and Stephen Curry, who has largely been pretty good, will have major targets any time Brunson initiated the offence.
In the clip above, you can see how even Devin Booker, who has largely been a very good defensive guard throughout his career, was a bad matchup against Jalen Brunson, and I think Curry will get the same treatment. If Jordan Poole is too much of a liability to defensively to stay on the floor, the Warriors' spacing could be extremely poor, and the Mavericks have already proven themselves to be a great defensive team so far in these playoffs. Draymond Green is going to have perhaps the toughest defensive burden of his entire career, anchoring units where his best defensive partner will mostly be...Andrew Wiggins? If Draymond is able to play like his defensive prime, switching out onto any perimeter star, and protecting the rim at an elite rate, then the Warriors could have a chance defensively, but I think that if Looney is played off the floor then he will have an extremely tough time in what will probably become an extremely small series once the Mavericks move to their '5-out' lineup with Kleber at centre.
On the other end, I think the reluctance of Steve Kerr to get away from his "beautiful game" offence and follow the early Suns blueprint of attacking Luka relentlessly defensively and making him defend in space could be a problem. While Booker and Paul weren't awful matchups for Luka, considering they wanted to work within the arc and get to mid-rangers, rather than making him defend out beyond the arc where his lack of speed and agility really limits him, I think the Mavericks are drawing dead any time Luka is forced to defend Curry out in space, but the Mavs have done extremely well at hiding Luka off the ball since the first two games of the Suns series, and the Warriors will have to work hard to force Luka onto ball handlers, especially if Draymond Green continues to be a liability for the Warriors' spacing.
Against the Suns, Luka was able to hide on reluctant dribblers like Crowder and Bridges, and although he got burned by Crowder and Bridges multiple times in the first few games of the series, by games 5, 6 and 7 he generally looked pretty good and his effort level was much higher, perhaps due to being less hampered by his injury. However, he has still struggled to get through screens, as can be seen on this Crowder open 3, and it will be tough to hide him against the Warriors- they will probably match him up on Wiggins, who has a lot more burst and athleticism than either Bridges or Crowder, and I think this matchup could be something the Warriors look to exploit, whenever they are looking for offence outside the big-3 of Curry, Poole or Thompson.
3-point shooting will be key in this series, as both teams rely heavily on three-point shooting: 38% of the Warriors points and 44% of the Mavericks points come from beyond the arc, and there will almost certainly be a couple of games in this series swung by shooting variance. The possession game will also be extremely important. The Warriors have managed to dominate the boards against two much bigger Grizzlies and Nuggets teams so far this postseason, and although their Defensive Rebound Percentage is actually only marginally better than the Mavericks at 70.2% compared to 69.8%, I do expect them to win the rebounding battle against a smaller Mavericks team. In terms of turnovers, however, the Mavericks have been the best team in the entire playoffs at limiting turnovers, while the Warriors are the worst out of the four teams left, giving up 7.6 more PPG off of turnovers than the Mavs per NBA.com. Where the Warriors can get an advantage on the Mavs, if they lose the possession battle, is in transition- the Mavericks rank 14th out of 16 playoff teams in percentage of points in transition, at a measly 8.1%, and it is clearly something Luka is uncomfortable with, although they did run slightly more in games 6 and 7. The Warriors have great transition players like Green, Curry and Wiggins, and they should definitely look to juice the pace against a Mavericks team that likes to play extremely methodically.
Overall, I think this will be a close-fought series, that could easily go 7 games, but in the end I think the Mavericks will edge this one out in 6 games. My Prediction: Mavericks in 6.
Celtics vs. Heat
If Mavs vs. Warriors is going to be an offensive, matchup-hunting series, this series is going to be an absolute defensive war. Both the Heat but especially the Celtics have proven themselves throughout this playoff run to be incredible defensively, absolutely stifling their prior opponents and evidencing very few weaknesses throughout their runs.
For the Celtics, their game plan is all about having strong individual matchups, with big switchable defenders like Grant Williams, Al Horford, Marcus Smart and Jayson Tatum able to matchup across the spectrum, and then helping off of players they are happy to leave open, and trusting the other players to switch off the ball correctly. In the clip below, they know that Brook Lopez has been a highly inconsistent shooter in the playoffs, so both players stay with Giannis, and although Lopez makes the shot on a great pass, the Celtics are happy with this outcome.
Expect similar defence on Jimmy Butler for the Celtics, who have a number of great matchups against him, they will dare him to shoot from three, and they will live with a Gabe Vincent or Victor Oladipo three if it allows them to help on Butler drives, and although Butler has been incredible so far in these playoffs, I expect him to struggle in this series, and he will have to make a lot of tough mid-rangers for the Heat to stand a chance in this series. Bam Adebayo will also have to be awesome, and he probably has the best matchup in this series, able to shoot over Grant Williams, and his hand-off game on the perimeter to shooters will also likely give Al Horford problems if that's who the Celtics choose to match him up with. A lot of Butler's offence came in situations like the clip below, except against the Celtics it won't be James Harden guarding him in the post, but a great defender like Marcus Smart, Jayson Tatum or Grant Williams, and I think this is why he will struggle. In comparison, the Celtics have more options for either Jayson Tatum or Jaylen Brown to get good looks- the only decent matchups the Heat have for them are Butler and Tucker, but I think Butler will be hidden on either Marcus Smart or Derrick White, due to his extreme offensive burden, which will leave an easier matchup for whoever P.J Tucker isn't guarding. The Heat also do not have anywhere close to as good rim protection as the Bucks did, with only Bam Adebayo, who is not as good as either Giannis or Lopez, and the Celtics should be able to get a lot more going at the rim, especially once they get Adebayo switched out onto the perimeter.
In the clips above, you can see how the Bucks were able to leave Smart and White wide open without any consequence, and although the Heat do not have similar rim protection, I think they could still utilise this strategy effectively.
Max Strus and P.J Tucker will be the X-factors for the Heat because I don't think Tyler Herro will hold up defensively, and it looks like Lowry will be limited for much of this series- can Strus hold up defensively and keep shooting lights out? Will P.J Tucker make the defence respect anything other than his corner three? These questions will be important for the Heat to answer, because if it is only Butler and Adebayo creating anything in halfcourt offence, I think it will be just too inefficient, and the Celtics will win this series with ease. Duncan Robinson could have a place in this series if the Heat halfcourt offence gets too bogged down, and he could potentially hold up better defensively without the quickness of a Tyrese Maxey to blow by him every possession on a switch, and I think he could survive against Jayson Tatum in small doses, although this will definitely not be a matchup the Heat love.
Overall, I expect this series to be an absolute defensive war, but ultimately I think the Celtics have better, more versatile defensive and offensive units they can test and play around with, and I think that Tatum and Brown will have a much easier burden offensively than Adebayo and Butler, and ultimately the Celtics will close this out in 6 games.
My prediction: Celtics in 6
