Boston Celtics (55.5 Wins): Over
I think the Celtics will be motivated to try hard in the regular season this year coming off a gutting finals' loss, similar to how the Phoenix Suns dominated last year's regular season following their finals' loss to the Bucks in 2021. More importantly however, they are probably the deepest team in the NBA going into this season, with significant room to withstand injuries and an incredible defence that will generate wins even on their off-shooting nights. My only concern with this this pick is Jayson Tatum's notoriously consistent inconsistencies in the regular season, playing poorly for the first half of the season, and playing the rest of the season like an MVP candidate, however even if this does occur, I think Boston's defence will carry them to comfortably be 'over' the odds here.
Milwaukee Bucks (52.5 Wins): Over
This is another bet that I'm pretty confident in- the Bucks have consistently been a great regular-season team in the Mike Budenholzer era, other than their injury-plagued 2021-2022 season which still netted an impressive 51 wins. With a healthy Khris Middleton, another year of prime Giannis with hopefully a further-improved jumpshot, and tried-and-true defensive system that dominates with Brook Lopez and Giannis on the floor, I think the Bucks will have a great regular season this year.
Phoenix Suns (52.5 Wins): Over
The Suns are more difficult to predict, because they have little reason to take the regular season as seriously as they did last year, and I think Chris Paul and Devin Booker will end up resting a lot more games than they have previously, yet the end-to-end depth and quality across this roster, as well as the absurd number of games they won last season make me believe they will end up reaching their 'over', despite all the questions surrounding this team. The DeAndre Ayton free agency drama this summer also makes me question the over here, but I will ultimately still pick it.
Los Angeles Clippers (52.5): Under
The Clippers in the Kawhi Leonard/Paul George era have consistently not taken the regular season seriously whatsoever, with Leonard resting on all back-to-backs and none of their players ever playing more then 35 minutes/game. For this reason I am going to pick the under, although I could see this bet being wrong simply due to the sheer depth and quality of this team, as the Clippers probably come closest to challenging the Celtics in terms of depth at every position, and the highest payroll in the league allowing them to continuously acquire quality players like Norman Powell and Robert Covington without worrying about ducking the tax. Overall, I could easily see myself being burned by this pick, but I am still taking the under on the Clippers.
Golden State Warriors (51.5): Over
My natural instinct for the Warriors was to go with the under- just coming off a championship so little to prove in the regular season, Curry, Green and Thompson are all getting older, and so will probably be rested more than usual; and inexperienced players like Jonathan Kuminga and James Wiseman will demand more minutes next season and probably make the team worse in the short-term. However, they have a track record of great regular season records with this core healthy, and the explosion of Jordan Poole as a quality NBA player will improve the typically abysmal minutes with Curry resting or on the bench. As long as their core stays relatively healthy, I am confident the Warriors will hit their over this season.
Denver Nuggets (49.5): Over
Although I am completely unsure of how much the Nuggets will get out of Michael Porter Jr., Jokić is a regular season wins machine, dragging a completely lacklustre roster to 48 wins last year, and he has shown that he can typically always be counted on from a health standpoint too. Although Jamal Murray will likely be on a minutes limit and avoid playing back-to-backs, adding him to a very similar roster to the 48-win team last year will surely push this team to at least 50 wins. My only cause for concern with this pick is the losses of important role players Will Barton and Monte Morris for Ish Smith, (a low quality backup) and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (more of a playoff piece) likely lowers the floor for this team, but Jokić sets the floor pretty high anyway.
Philadelphia 76ers (49.5): Over
The 76ers were a decent regular season team last year despite the Ben Simmons drama hanging over the team last year and without James Harden for that period too. This year, although I don't expect Joel Embiid to play quite as well as he did last year, the additions of Danuel House and P.J Tucker through the offseason will improve the team somewhat, and having a full year of a fully motivated James Harden should also help, although it I am somewhat skeptical of his ability to be truly great on offence with reduced explosion and a reduction in his foul-drawing abilities. My main fear with this pick is an Embiid injury, but you can only go so far with pricing in injuries for pre-season predictions.
Memphis Grizzlies (48.5): Over
For a team that won 56 games last year despite Ja Morant only playing 57 games, this line seems to have been set surprisingly low. The Grizzlies are bringing back mostly the same squad as last season, and should be hungrier than ever, after barely scraping past the #7 seed Timberwolves in the first round, and then being dispatched by the Warriors in the second round. The Grizz retained key backup point guard Tyus Jones, who will be important for when Morant inevitably misses a few games throughout the season, and Desmond Bane should be better than ever after a most-improved-player worthy campaign last season. My only worry with this team is that their defence might fall off without Jaren Jackson Jr., who is going to miss a significant portion of the season with a stress fracture in his foot, despite coming off of the healthier season of his career. Nevertheless, I am highly confident the Grizzlies will hit this over.
Dallas Mavericks (48.5): Under
First off, the reasons they could hit the over: Luka Dončić finally has the dominant MVP-level regular season that people have been predicting for the last two seasons; or the defence continues at a top 5 level like it was last year. However, Luka now has a track record of coming into the season out of shape, and this summer he has spent competing in EuroBasket, so even if he is in shape, he will probably be worn down and perhaps miss some games due to injury. I also think the loss of Jalen Brunson will prove to be massive for this team, and the combination of Spencer Dinwiddie and Tim Hardaway Jr. won't be enough to make up for the gap left by Brunson. I am also not sure of the alchemy of this team, with new additions JaVale McGee and Christian Wood taking minutes away from important role players like Maxi Kleber and Dwight Powell. Overall, I could definitely be wrong, but I am going with the under.
Miami Heat (48.5): Under
I am confident in this under, and it comes down to three things: the age of the roster, the strength of competition, and lack of motivation. The Miami Heat have the second oldest roster in the league, and key players like Kyle Lowry and Jimmy Butler in particular are much past their regular-season primes, and will likely be saving themselves for the playoffs. Although the Heat were the #1 seed last season, that was with a Celtics roster that were bad until the 2nd half of the year, two drama-filled teams in the Brooklyn Nets and Philadelphia 76ers, and a Bucks squad that suffered injuries to key players throughout the year. I expect all of the above listed teams to improve significantly, while the Heat will get a little worse, leaving them with a lower seed and fewer wins than their 53 from last year. Furthermore, this team is focused completely on the playoffs, having lost to the Celtics in game 7 of the Eastern Conference finals, and thus has little reason to try hard in the regular season and risk injuries.
Minnesota Timberwolves (47.5): Over
The Timberwolves are probably the hardest team to predict in the entire NBA this year, simply due to the uncertainty surrounding the addition of Rudy Gobert- how will he fit with Karl-Anthony Towns? How good will their defence be? How much will the loss of key role players hurt their on-court product? Ultimately, however, I am optimistic about their outlook this year. I think that Gobert will elevate their defence to new heights, with perhaps the best surrounding defensive talent of his career, despite sieves like Towns and D'Angelo Russell remaining on the team. And although I think they will be a little worse offensively with Towns guarded by opposing power forwards rather than centers, Anthony Edwards is primed to make the leap to all-star status and will elevate them further offensively as the clear second scoring option. Another factor to consider is that this team will be extremely hungry to prove they belong with the NBA's elite after all the crap they took last postseason, both following their play-in victory and multiple collapses against the Grizzlies, and at least in the regular season, I think they will play like an elite team.
Atlanta Hawks (46.5): Over
Although I definitely don't trust this team come playoff time, I think they will be fine in the regular season. The Hawks have always struggled with perimeter defence and with non-Trae Young minutes, and the addition of Dejounte Murray appears, preliminarily at least, to answer both of those questions. Although the losses of Danilo Gallinari and Kevin Huerter will definitely reduce this teams offensive upside, I think the tradeoff for more defensive stability will be overall a net positive one for this team, and with hopefully more minutes and improvement from DeAndre Hunter, I think this team will do well in the regular season.
Cleveland Cavaliers (46.5): Over
The Cleveland Cavaliers (!) are going to be a damn good team next year. Although the roster is completely devoid of quality small forwards, their starting lineup featuring Donovan Mitchell, Darius Garland, Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen looks completely nasty and will be one of the best 4-man units in the entire league. They also have decent depth, with quality backups like Rubio and LeVert still on this roster, so hopefully there won't be too much of a drop-off when the starters leave the floor. J.B Bickerstaff also has the option of staggering his rotation so there is always a quality ball-handler and quality rim-protector on the court at all times. My only fears with this team are based on health (Allen and Mobley are going to take an absolute beating at the rim this year) and how quickly this team can fit together with the addition of Mitchell late into the offseason changing so much about how this team will play.
L.A Lakers (45.5): Under
Unless the Lakers manage to trade Westbrook for players that will actually help this team right now, I can't see them being much better than last year. LeBron James will be another year older and probably slightly worse, Malik Monk is gone, they don't have much of an answer at centre, and Patrick Beverley is probably the third best player on this team now. If Anthony Davis stays healthy for the majority of the season then I could maybe see them beating this over, but the team as presently constructed is just entirely devoid of quality depth or well-fitting skillsets.
Brooklyn Nets (45.5): Over
I see the Nets as in a very similar situation to the Lakers, just with slightly better talent, upside and fit, but also a higher potential for combustion if either Kevin Durant or Kyrie Irving decide they are unhappy with the situation and agitate for a trade again.
New Orleans Pelicans (44.5): Under
The Pelicans are in a weird position, because they definitely have the talent on paper to be a 45 win team, with all-star quality players in Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram, and C.J McCollum can play like an all-star calibre player at his best, however I think there are just far too many questions surrounding this team for me to feel confident taking the over. First and foremost, is Zion Williamson's health- in his mostly healthy second year he proved capable of elevating this team to playoff-calibre during the second of the season when he was given the ball a lot more during the 'Point Zion' campaign. The second, and perhaps more troubling issue, is the fit of this team. The projected starting five of McCollum, Herbert Jones, Ingram, Williamson and Valanciunas is certainly talented, but will have bad spacing, and probably bad defence despite the overall height of the unit, and I don't think the scrappy bench unit featuring Jose Alvarado and Trey Murphy will have enough talent to compete with opposing bench units either, even if both are decent fits coming into the starting lineup.
Toronto Raptors (44.5): Over
The Raptors won 48 games last season, and I don't see any reason why they won't be able to do the same this season, if not win even more games. This is a team on the right side of the ageing curve with players like Scottie Barnes (age 21) and OG Anunoby (25) and Pascal Siakam (28) all looking to take steps forward next season, and this team should also improve defensively, with an incredible amount of length across the roster outside of Fred VanVleet who is a good, scrappy defender in his own right; as the team becomes more accustomed to Nick Nurse's frenetic defensive system. Although this team does have some offensive worries, I think the quality of their defence and overwhelming length will kill bad NBA teams, and even if the Eastern Conference is much-improved this year, I think the Raptors will pick up enough wins across the season to finish comfortably above this over.
Chicago Bulls (43.5): Under
Although the Bulls suffered a lot of injuries to key players last season and still won 46 games, I just don't see them replicating the same success this year. DeMar DeRozan had a complete outlier of a year to elevate himself into MVP status, and the Bulls clutch shooting stats- DeRozan in particular- were just incredible and surely unsustainable: DeRozan had a True Shooting of 67%, on a 39% (!) usage rate. This incredible clutch play meant that the Bulls won 6 more games than expected, which is never usually an indicator of future success, and simple maths would predict a reduction in the Bulls win rate next year. There is some reason for optimism, however. Zach LaVine spent much of last season banged up, and he is probably due a decent amount of improvement next year. Patrick Williams missed nearly the entire season last year, so any contribution from him would be an improvement, and Lonzo Ball played great for the Bulls at the beginning of last year, but missed the latter half with a meniscus tear in his knee, and is currently doubtful for the start of next season. Overall, there is plenty of reason to be optimistic about this team reaching their over, but I remain unconvinced.
Portland Trailblazers (40.5): Under
I probably should be higher on this team- their roster on paper looks fine- they have a likely All-NBA point guard in Damian Lillard, a near all-star in Jerami Grant, great role players like Josh Hart and Gary Payton III, as well as a promising young player in Anfernee Simons. However, I don't see this team fitting well enough to win 41 games or more, in what looks to be an extremely competitive Western Conference next year. Jerami Grant was perhaps best optimised as a role-player on the Nuggets, but recently he has shown an unwillingness to take a backseat on offence with his decision to join the Pistons, and Grant will likely take possessions away from Lillard, in favour of less efficient, average offence. The Blazers also have very little depth at the 3 and 4 positions, and will instead be relying on young players like Keon Johnson, Nassir Little and Greg Brown to provide positive starter-level contributions at those positions: something I think is unlikely to occur.
New York Knicks (39.5): Over
I was heavily conflicted about this pick, but ultimately, both the quality of depth across this roster, and the fact that they had the point differential of a 41-win team last season convinced me to take the over. Knicks young players Quentin Grimes, Miles McBride, Immanuel Quickley and Jericho Sims have all shown a lot of promise in their careers so far, and the Knicks should be able to count on at least a couple of them to contribute to winning basketball this year, alongside the new starting core of Brunson, Fournier, Barrett and Randle. They should also be getting 48 minutes of great rim protection with both Mitchell Robinson and Isaiah Hartenstein, and they should have decent spacing in the starting lineup with decent shooting at the 1-4 positions, and the Knicks could even look to play Obi Toppin at the 5 for elite spacing if Tom Thibodeau would ever make an offence for defence sacrifice. The reason I was conflicted about this pick, however is just the potential for inefficiency in their offence. Julius Randle will likely take the most shots on this team, when he should really be at least the third, potentially fourth option, and him and R.J Barrett scored 0.86 and 0.85 points per possession on isolations last season, which is an abysmal number considering the two played 456 possessions out of isolation last season. If the Knicks can play healthier offence with the addition of Brunson then I see them easily clearing this over, but if they fall-back on iso-ball, then I am somewhat skeptical...
Charlotte Hornets (36.5): Under
I think the Charlotte Hornets will be the biggest victims of rising teams in both conferences, and that even though they won 43 games last season, they will be unable to repeat the same success this year against better teams. More pressingly, it appears that their most-improved candidate and arguably best player last season, Miles Bridges will be entirely out of the league next season after an extremely disturbing case of domestic violence. Gordon Hayward, the teams' most polished player and largest contributor to winning games played 49 games last season, and that seems to be about as many as we can expect form Hayward, who has been perpetually injured ever since he injured his ankle on his Celtics debut in 2017. Where I could be wrong is if Steve Clifford manages to transform this teams' defence, similarly to what he achieved in Orlando, and if their #15 pick Mark Williams is able to be a valuable rim protector, but at the moment, I am picking the under.
Washington Wizards (35.5): Under
I mean, at least the Wizards are definitely going to try, right? Notorious under owner Ted Leonsas, the Wizards have been the best example of a team stuck in mediocrity in the Eastern Conference, trying desperately every season to squeeze into the playoffs, just to be knocked out in the first round. This is the only factor that gives me pause in taking the under here, as I think there are going to be a lot of bad teams tanking, which could give the Wizards some easy wins at the end of the season when nobody else is trying. Just based on roster quality though, I don't think this team has enough quality to improve on the 34 wins they got last season, even if the addition of Kristaps Porzingis might make them a somewhat better regular-season team.
Sacramento Kings (32.5): Under
I am picking the Kings under pretty much for the exact same reasons as discussed for the Wizards above, except I think the Kings have a worse roster with more flaws and less high-end talent, so they are going to win less games.
Detroit Pistons (28.5): Over
This is perhaps my most controversial pick, but I think the Pistons will actually be halfway decent this year. First off, all signs point to the Pistons not being one of the teams actively tanking in hopes of getting Victor Wembanyama in the draft this year. Secondly, I think Cade Cunningham will take a huge jump this year, and I think Saddiq Bey could also quietly improve to near all-star status in the East this year. Although rookies generally don't contribute to winning games, Jalen Duren has looked good as a rim so far, and I think the Pistons could have a top-15 defence. Offensively, it will probably be much more of a struggle, with limited spacing around Cade, (I don't trust Jaden Ivey's shooting), and this over pick is essentially comes down to betting on their defence being good enough to win games when their offence isn't clicking, and being able to beat the other bad tanking teams.
Oklahoma City Thunder (26.5): Under
In my opinion, this line is set too high, especially with Chet Holmgren missing the entire year with a Lisfranc foot injury. The only winning player they have on the roster is Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and the Thunder have shown themselves to be extremely committed to tanking, and I think if Shai starts winning them too many games, they will simply stop playing him in order to ensure as many losses as possible. In fact, I would even say the Thunder are my favourite to have the worst record in the NBA this season, despite decent coaching from Marc Dignault, and perhaps the best individual player out of any of these bad tanking teams, due in large part to the incredible organisational commitment to losing games.
Utah Jazz (26.5): Under
This prediction is based mostly on the assessment that Danny Ainge's fire sale of what decent players are left on this roster will come before the start of the season, and that when they finally trade away all their veteran players, the roster left will be one of the most inexperienced, and probably the worst defence in the league by a significant margin. The only way I can see the Jazz hitting the over is if they go a significant portion of the season playing Mike Conley, Bojan Bogdanovic and Jordan Clarkson significant minutes to improve their value, but frankly I think Ainge would rather commit fully to the tank and remove these players from the roster as quickly as possible, to assess the potential of some of the younger guys on this roster, such as Collin Sexton or Ochai Agbaji.
Orlando Magic (25.5): Under
The Magic have some very promising young players on the roster, as well as the #1 overall pick Paolo Banchero. Ultimately, however, even if the Magic don't appear to have the same organisational commitment to tanking as the Rockets, Thunder or even the Jazz, I don't think there are enough veterans on this team to stop them being worse than a 26 win team, especially considering they only won 22 games last year. I do think they will be better than last year, with Franz Wagner especially poised to take a leap, but when push comes to shove I think this team will commit to tanking through the end of the season and ultimately hit the under here.
Indiana Pacers (24.5): Over
As much as the Pacers roster is extremely flawed, I don't think they will be bad enough to hit the over here. Especially if they go into the season with Myles Turner and Buddy Hield (who have been discussed extensively in trade packages), then I think there will be too much high-end talent and experience for this team to be worse than the likes of the Thunder and Magic. Tyrese Haliburton looks set for a breakout year as he finally gets a full year of being the offensive focal point, and this should also help the team generate wins. If they are close to the bottom of the league down the stretch of the season, I could see the Pacers fully commit to tanking, but ultimately I think they will still hit the over.
Houston Rockets (23.5): Under
Too much youth and inexperience on this roster, as well as a strong organisational push towards losing games will ultimately doom this team to their under, in my opinion. Jalen Green, although he showed a lot of great flashes in his rookie year, is not close to a winning player yet, and Kevin Porter Jr. is both a damaging player on the court and in the locker room, even if he also showed great flashes of potential throughout last year. I like a lot of the players' potential on this roster, but ultimately I don't think this will be the year that that potential translates into the Rockets winning games.
San Antonio Spurs (22.5): Over
The oddsmakers' favourite for the worst record in the league, I think this team will be bad, and they probably have the least on court talent in the league, but ultimately I don't think the Spurs will have the organisational desire to tank the way some of the other bad teams in the league will, especially in possibly Gregg Popovich's final year as Spurs coach. They have absolutely nothing at point guard ( Third year guard Tre Jones is all they have, and he hasn't exactly been setting the league on fire), and their lack of talent could sink them to the under, but ultimately I am still taking the over.
Three best bets:
- Memphis Grizzlies (Over)
- Oklahoma City Thunder (Under)
- Utah Jazz (Under)
Three least confident
- New York Knicks (Over)
- Dallas Mavericks (Under)
- Los Angeles Clippers (Under)
