What went wrong for the Wolves?
Edwards must be more aggressive
Whether due to fatigue after a gruelling 7-gamer v the Nuggets, injury limitation after the hard fall he suffered in game 6, the paint being clogged, inexperience, or a combination of all three, Anthony Edwards is shooting 12 for 40 from the field, including a disappointing 5 for 18 from 2-point range, and he has been really struggling to get to the rim, compared to his usual lofty standards.
Through the regular season, Edwards averaged 14.6 drives per game, and shot 53.8% on such drives, passing on only 30.0% of his drives. In the last 2 games, he has driven only 9 times per game, and has not converted a single shot out of these (0/5), while his pass percentage has nearly doubled (55.6%). His aggressiveness has clearly dwindled, and this can be seen in a number of possessions against Dallas in game 1 where he settled for pull-up threes on switches against Doncic and, and on the few drives he did make, you can clearly see how clogged the paint is against him, as the Mavericks loaded up off limited Timberwolves shooters.
In the above clip, you can see how he settles against Luka, but also how Lively is extremely willing to help off the non-shooting Anderson in the corner, and the Wolves almost always have at least one non-shooter on the floor, alongside reluctant shooters in Alexander-Walker, and McDaniels (even if he went crazy in game 1).
You can see how clogged the paint is on this clip, but also how his usual expolsive burst appears to be limited, allowing Gafford to easily protect the rim here- Ant at his best here would have been way above the rim.
Luka dissecting the defence:
Luka "only" had 8 assists against the Wolves in Game 1, but those genuinely might have been the most high-value 8 assists I have ever seen. Every single one resulted in a layup or dunk, and all but the final assist were completely wide-open. While fingers might be immediately pointed at Gobert, it is clear that most of these breakdowns were the result of other Wolves messing up the coverage.
For example, in this play, Naz Reid MUST be there to provide backside help if the Wolves are going to double Luka on the screen, and instead he sticks to the much-less threatening Jones Jr. in the corner.
In this play, McDaniels decides to go over the screen, and gets stuck in jail, with Gobert forced into a 2-on-1 against maybe the best pick-and-roll player we have seen, resulting in a wide-open dunk off a great pass.
These are the kinds of wide-open shots the Nuggets were getting in their 3 wins against the Wolves, and the shots the Wolves were able to completely eliminate in the other 4 games. While Luka is a different kind of player to Jokic, and Kyrie is a better second scorer than Murray, the Wolves need to find a way to force the streaky role-playing shooters like Jones Jr. and Washington to beat them from beyond the arc- they cannot let Luka and Kyre combine for 63 again to get wins in this series. I would suggest McDaniels go under on screens, and whoever the second big- either Reid or Towns- to play way off on Jones Jr/Josh Green, to try and reduce the number of alley oops/wide-open dunks the double-big combination of Gafford and Lively are able to get.
Must have more energy against Kyrie:
Edwards tasked himself with the tough challenge of matching up with Kyrie on one end, and being the main option on offence, and he clearly didn't have the energy for it in game one.
On this play, he is late getting back in transition, doesn't communicate with Naz Reid to switch, and it leads to a complete defensive breakdown.
On this play, McDaniels is way too slow getting back, there is no one else home to protect the rim, and Kyrie is able to saunter up the court to get another and-one in transition. Complete breakdown thanks to a lack of energy, the Wolves must be better in this in future games in the series.
What went well for the Wolves- is it sustainable?
Jaden McDaniels- probably not
McDaniels made his first 5 shots, including 4 threes, and finished the game with 24 points, leading the Wolves in scoring, despite being the fifth option on most nights. Although McDaniels is on a 3-game hot streak of 20+ points, it is highly unlikely to sustain throughout the series, and the Wolves should not rely on his offensive contributions. For example, in the Phoenix series, he had a game with 25 points, followed by 5, followed by 18, followed by 0 in his first game against the Nuggets. The point is, even if McDaniels continues to play well, he is a not a consistent source of good offence, and is more of a 'bonus' to the Timberwolves offence if he plays well. The same applies to Nickeil Alexander-Walker, who is currently experiencing the cold side of being a streaky offensive player.
3-point dominance: Unlikely
The Timberwolves shot 11-of-25 from deep in the first half, while the Mavericks were just 2-of-13. However, finishing the game with 49 attempts is a worrying sign for a Wolves team that has averaged 33.9 per game throughout these playoffs, demonstrating that they have been pushed out of the paint. Therefore, while the Wolves were able to outscore the Mavericks 54-18 from 3-point range, they were equally dominated by the more reliable source of offence- paint points- 62 to 38. Statistically, these teams have been relatively equal from beyond the arc (both at 35.9%), so expect a regression to the mean in game 2 from beyond the arc.
One positive thing the Wolves can take away regarding the three-point differential is that they were able to get up 15 corner threes (6/15) compared to the Mavericks' 4 (3/4). When Luka gets blitzed, the Mavericks are usually able to convert the extra attention to corner 3s, but the Wolves were able to force them into tough above-the-break 3s instead, which the Mavericks role players shot a putrid 0-of-12 from. If the Wolves are able to sustain this shot mix for the Mavericks, while cleaning up the rim-shots (a tough task), then they will have a good chance in games moving forward in this series. The clip below demonstrates a good example of the perfect type of shots the Wolves will be willing to give up against these Mavericks.
Overall, I think the Wolves will have a good chance in this series, provided the non-Rudy defenders are able to do a better job in backside help, forcing the Mavericks role players to beat them from 3, and if Anthony Edwards is able to get back to his usual offensive self.
