Ranking every NBA contender by examining their biggest weaknesses

Although it is more common to think of NBA teams in terms of their strengths, the playoffs are more about minimizing your own and exploiting other teams' weaknesses, whereas the regular season is more about your teams' biggest night-to-night strengths, with the lack of scouting and training time. Therefore, when evaluating potential NBA finalists it is more cogent to think in terms of glaring holes, rather than individual strengths.

Currently, there are roughly 10 teams that have a realistic potential for a title run this year (11 if the Sixers manage to get good pieces for Simmons), which is definitely a high point in terms of parity compared to the recent years of the Warriors' and Heat dynasties, which makes analysing the contenders all the more interesting.

The teams are split into tiers representing their chance of winning championship this year. Tier 3 are the teams with a very low chanc- it would be extremely surprising to most of the NBA world for them to win it all (Think 2011 Mavs). Tier 2: the 'dark horse' teams- not the oddsmakers' favourites, but they still have a very realistic shot at the title. And tier 1: all these teams have a close to equally good chance of winning it all, their roster construction is elite, their chemistry and fit is humming and it would not be surprising to anyone for these teams to win.

Tier 3: 10) L.A Lakers: Age/Fit/Making the playoffs

Yes, they currently have a losing record. Yes, they might not make the playoffs. Yes, the supporting cast look old and washed. And yes, Anthony Davis is currently injured and Russell Westbrook's fit with Davis and LeBron is horrible. But at the end of the day, this is still a team with two potentially top-10 players in AD and LeBron, and it would be ill-advised to count them out of championship contention as long as LeBron is still playing this well. Furthermore, there still doesn't seem to be one single West playoff juggernaut the way the KD Warriors and the CP-Harden Rockets were in the past.

However, the fit of Russell Westbrook is horrible on this team, his shooting kills their spacing and his nonexistent defence has turned what has been the Lakers' primary identity the past couple of seasons into a weakness- they are ranked 19th for the season in defensive rating. The aging role players signed in free agency largely haven't worked out, and the Horton-Tucker extension also looks to have been a mistake- the only off season move that can be seen as a clear success was the Malik Monk signing. Their lack of flexibility makes any in-season improvements highly unlikely, and any deal would probably have to include Horton-Tucker, as we have seen in recent trade rumours.

Nevertheless, if they can make the playoffs, they will definitely be a scary prospect for any high seeded team in the West, once fully healthy.

Tier 3: 9) Memphis Grizzlies: High end talent

The Grizzlies have been one of the bigger shocks this season, going an absolutely molten going 23-7 in their last 30 games, and it is clear that Ja Morant has taken the leap this year to become a clear 1st-team All-NBA contender. Desmond Bane has improved hugely as an offensive player, and Jaren Jackson Jr. has finally shown some signs of life as the elite defensive big he was touted to be coming out of college.

However, other than these internal improvements, not much else has changed from the team that got destroyed by the Jazz in the first round last year. While they are undeniably a better team than last year, are we really supposed to believe that internal improvement and swapping Valanciunas for Adams is going to be enough to stop them getting beat in the first or second round again? Their defence is definitely elite, they are first in both steals and blocks, and their activity on that end of the floor fuels the offence through feedback loops in the fastbreak. However, when the game slows down in the playoffs, and teams are more careful about turning the ball over and taking inefficient shots, it is unclear if the Grizzlies will be able to continue to perform at this elite rate. Ultimately, their low ranking comes down to the belief that Ja Morant won't be at the level of a number one player for a championship team this year, and that is why a team like the Mavericks is placed higher than them.

Tier 3: 8) Dallas Mavericks: Supporting Cast

Although by his standards he is having a 'down year', Luka Dončić has clearly already proven himself capable of being a number one option on a championship team. He has absolutely dominated a Clippers team seemingly ideally situated to shut him down with elite wing defence in Kawhi and PG, and if they had gotten any other matchup in either of the past 2 seasons, it is likely that the Mavericks would have gone much further in the playoffs. Their recent surge in defence has been a very surprising positive development- they are now ranked 4th in the league, and although their 6th best opponent 3pt percentage seems unsustainable, it is clear that Jason Kidd has got this team to execute a defensive plan far more successfully than Carlisle was able to in previous seasons.

However, they are far from the greatest offense of all time they were in 2019-20- ranked a measly 22nd, and it is clear that the supporting cast around Luka probably won't be good enough to make a real run in the playoffs. Tim Hardaway Jr.'s recent injury damages the offence even more, removing arguably their most consistent 3-point shooter from the lineup, and although their defence may improve as a result, the ability for players like Maxi Kleber and Dorian Finney-Smith to hit open threes will be crucial to this team's playoff success. Ultimately, as last season showed, Dončić will be worn down by the lack of offensive support he has on this team, having to initiate everything, and unless Jalen Brunson is able to play far better than he did last year, it is just too much to expect one player to carry this supporting cast to a finals appearance against quality defensive teams like the Warriors and Suns.

Tier 2: 7) Chicago Bulls: Defence/Unproven in the playoffs

Almost nobody would have predicted the Bulls to be the 1 seed halfway through the season, but it is clear now that Karnišovas's off-season was extremely successful. DeMar DeRozan is having a career year at age 32, establishing himself as an MVP candidate, and the additions of Lonzo Ball and Alex Caruso have transformed this team's defence from what would likely have been bottom of the league fodder to slightly below average, through their shark-like perimeter defence, while LaVine, DeRozan and Vucevic have not been as terrible as might have been expected coming into the year.

Although this year has certainly been successful for the Bulls, the postseason will be far more challenging for them. As defences adjust to the Bulls scheme, their defence could become far more porous, if teams decide to actually hunt DeRozan for isolations, or attack Vucevic's poor mobility in pick-n-roll. Offensively limited players like Caruso, Green, and to some extent even Ball could also be exploited by a defensively minded team like Miami or the Warriors, overloading the rim against Lavine and Derozan's slashing game. Furthermore, the only properly playoff-seasoned players on the roster are Caruso and DeRozan, and DeRozan has hardly shined in his previous appearances with the Raptors. If DeRozan's MVP level performance this season sustains for the playoffs, the Bulls could definitely make a surprise run to the finals, but at the moment there are too many questions to place them anywhere higher than a dark-horse contender.

Tier 2: 6) Utah Jazz: Defence/Versatility

The Jazz offence is no joke. Their 3-point shooting formula has cemented them as a regular season top-seed year in, year out. Donovan Mitchell is playing at a much-improved level this year, and has taken the jump to be an all-NBA calibre guard, while Rudy Gobert remains by far the most valuable regular season defender in the NBA, being perhaps the only true 'heliocentric' defender in the league. Mike Conley is still a great third option, and Bogdanovic, O'Neale and Clarkson are all useful role players.

While defence might seem an odd choice as a key weakness for a team with 3-time DPOY Rudy Gobert, it is clearly an issue for a Jazz team that got rocked by the Clippers without Kawhi Leonard for the last two games of the series last year. Although Gobert is able to paper over the cracks in the regular season, swallowing up everything at the rim, having perimeter defenders that are completely unable to stop opposing guards and wings driving to the paint at will becomes a problem in the playoffs. Furthermore, their lack of versatility to play small (no, Rudy Gay is not the solution at centre) and match opposing teams, such as the Warriors, inhibits their playoff potential even further. Although the pairing of Mitchell and Gobert has seen extreme success in the regular season thus far, another disappointing playoffs could mean it is time for a change in Utah's personnel.

Tier One: 5) Phoenix Suns: MVP-level talent

There is honestly not much you can point to on the Suns as a specific 'weakness' per se. Last years' finalists, and the best record in the league this season, they certainly seemed poised to make another finals run and have a good chance of winning the championship. And honestly, they do. There is a reason they are in the top tier here, but there are a few weaknesses that can be pointed to that might be reasons for pessimism for a Phoenix playoff run.

Prime among their weaknesses is that they just don't have the elite talent necessary in today's league to win a championship. Although Booker and Paul are both clearly top-20/15 players in the NBA, last year's finals against the Bucks showed us the supreme importance of having an MVP talent on the roster, as Giannis feasted on the Suns' defence, and ultimately the Bucks' key players were simply better than the Suns'. Furthermore, the Suns are very much an 'ensemble cast' team, meaning both their stars and key role players all have to stay healthy across the board to have a chance in the playoffs. While this is less of a specific weakness of the team and more luck-based, a more superstar-focused team like the Nets was still able to fight valiantly despite two of their best players being sidelined or hobbled with injury- in comparison the Suns got destroyed by a healthy Lakers team with Chris Paul hobbled until Davis went down with injury.

Ultimately, the Suns are a clear title contender, but not one of the absolute favourites.

Tier One: 4) Miami Heat: Star offensive creation

The Heat have the potential for one of the greatest playoff defences of all time, with the likes of Lowry, Bam, Butler and Tucker combining to create a switching system that will make opponents' lives miserable. The Heat should also be praised for their extreme depth- fringe pickups like Max Strus, Gabe Vincent and Caleb Martin have all fit in seamlessly, and although it is unclear how many of these players will be able to truly contribute in the playoffs, they should be able to go at least 8 or 9 deep with ease. 3 point snipers like the aforementioned Strus, as well as Duncan Robinson and Tyler Herro will make their offence difficult to defend, without even accounting for the play of their best 3 players. Butler has also more than proven himself able to be the best player on a finals team after the 2020 bubble, and has continued to play at an MVP calibre rate this year, although health issues have halted any traction such a campaign could have had.

Health issues for this team in general have been a problem, and although they have the depth to weather a few injuries, they will have to at least get their best players fully healthy come playoff time to have any real chance. After their abject playoff failure last year, the Heat have a lot to prove heading into this years postseason, and although they seem like a more motivated, healthier and better team this year, it is unclear how they will perform. Similar to the Suns, this team is more of a collective than a group with a top-5 level talent, and ultimately the Heat offence could struggle if Butler's lack of a consistent outside shot eventually comes to hurt him as this teams' primary source of offence. Bam Adebayo seemed to have lost all confidence as an offensive threat against the Bucks last year, so it will also be important for him to try and recreate some of the offensive juice that let him dominate the Celtics in game 6 of the bubble playoffs.

Tier One: 3) Golden State Warriors: Non-Curry minutes

The Warriors certainly seem like the favourite to come out of the West at the moment, and for good reason. They had one of the best off-season's in the entire league, picking up players that match maximise Curry's strengths and fit around him. Gary Payton II has been an analytics darling all year, and Otto Porter Jr. has been a key pickup also. On top of this, they finally have the original big three back together, and Draymond is playing at a defensive player of the year level again, fuelling a historically good defence.

However, their offence has been far more of a struggle, in the last 10 games they have had the 28th worst offence in the entire league, behind even the Detroit Pistons. Coinciding with these struggles has been Steph Curry's recent shooting struggles- his 2-point shooting has been especially worrying- but as always, the non-Curry minutes have been a key weakness for the Warriors. Curry's elite +10.2 net rating is partly just his individual greatness, but also because the system doesn't work without his gravity- a similar situation the Hawks run into when Trae Young is off the floor. Whether or not Kerr is correct in continuing the 'read and react' system in the non-Curry minutes is a different debate, but it is clear these lineups aren't working, and for the Warriors to succeed, they will have to improve at least somewhat in the non-Curry minutes. One reason for optimism is that in the playoffs their best players will be playing 40+ minutes a night, and perhaps staggering Jordan Poole and Klay Thompson could juice the offence in the time Curry sits.

Tier One: 2) Milwaukee Bucks: Depth

Most analysts have the Bucks as the favourites right now, and it is not hard to see why. Giannis Antetokounmpo is having another MVP-calibre season, and the Bucks have an elite 19-4 record when their big-3 all play together. Bobby Portis is having another great year, and his shooting has really juiced their offence, while Grayson Allen is also filling in nicely for Donte DiVincenzo, and when Donte comes back they will have nice depth at the 2.

However, Brook Lopez's injury is very scary, and current signs suggest that he will be out for at least the start of the playoffs, and they will desperately need his rim protection, as 'Giannis at the 5' lineups will be much harder without the supplemental wing defence of PJ Tucker. Also, their 3-point shooting was horrible last playoffs, and until they shoot well in the playoffs, I will expect their offence to be a struggle, especially in the clutch. Nevertheless, it is clear that they have improved confidence this year, and I think Giannis will continue his playoff dominance from last years' finals, and make the Bucks a true force to be reckoned with.

Tier One: 1) Brooklyn Nets: Defence

Kevin Durant is injured right now, Kyrie Irving is only able to play road games and James Harden seems to have dropped off considerably from his Houston days. And yet, they are still my favourite to win the championship this year. In last years playoffs, we saw how incredible these three can be when they are all fully healthy, playing as the greatest offence of all time in the first round against a Celtics team who were definitely not awful defensively. In the second round, although they lost to the Bucks, they were playing without Kyrie and with Harden at ~25% of his usual production- and yet it still went down to the wire in 7 games.

Clearly, if either Kyrie or Harden had been healthy the Nets would have destroyed the Bucks and perhaps gone on to win it all. Of course, this year is different, and it seems unlikely that Blake Griffin will be able to do such a good job on Giannis this playoffs, as well as the fact that in the regular season this year, the Bucks have destroyed the Nets in their matchups. The Heat could also be a bad matchup for the Nets, with their brutal trio of defenders- Butler, Adebayo and Tucker who could give the Nets' big three problems. The Nets could also struggle to guard Heat shooters flying off screens to bomb threes against a team that has struggled in the effort categories since its inception. However, the term 'undeniability' is key when discussing the Nets- although they may have more obvious weaknesses than a team like the Heat, Bucks or even Suns, having three superstar offensive players just opens up so many options for them offensively, as they are able to hunt even average NBA defenders and abuse the matchup to create highly efficient offence. Ultimately, as long as they stay healthy, and Irving is able to play both home and road games (albeit both seem unlikely), the Brooklyn Nets have the highest probability of winning the 2022 NBA Championship.