NBA fans and NBA media alike have a tendency to overreact to recent trends, and this article intends to rationally evaluate which of these trends we should actually believe.
Real: The Boston Celtics are really good at defence
The Celtics struggled over a long stretch of the start of the season, due to the iso-ball of Tatum and Brown, as well as an underperforming defence, despite a plethora of high-quality defensive players. Since the New Year, however, their defence has been much better. Over the last 15 games, however, their defensive has been an incredible 98.5- that's 8.8 points better than the next best team (or the same difference as between 2nd place Miami the 25th place Chicago Bulls!)
One reason for this has been the lack of weak links in the lineup. The acquisition of Derrick White has given the Celtics perhaps the best defensive backcourt in the NBA, rivalling only the Ball-Caruso pairing in Chicago. The difference between the Celtics and Bulls however is that if opposing perimeter creators manage to break the strong guard defence, rather than challenging notoriously porous players like DeRozan, Vučević or LaVine, they are instead going up against more great defenders in Tatum, Brown, Grant and Robert Williams, Al Horford... heck, even the acquisition of Daniel Theis adds another mobile, versatile big to an already stacked defensive roster. The lack of weak links makes it very difficult for opposing teams to gameplan their offensive strategy against the Celtics, as any form of isolation attack is likely to be an inefficient play, and the Celtics have also been elite at allowing bad shooters to shoot- just look at their recent destruction of the Sixers, for example. One thing that immediately jumps out from the box score is Matisse Thybulle shooting 0/6 from three, and this is exactly the type of thing the Celtics have been doing to bad shooters in their recent stretch.
Speaking of forcing bad shots, the Celtics are following the traditional model of recent high-quality NBA defences, forcing a lot of tough mid-range jump shots and defending the rim extremely well. According to NBA.com, for the entire season, the Celtics are forcing opposing teams into the 2nd most mid-range attempts, of which they are shooting the 3rd worst FG% on. They are deterring shots at the rim extremely well too- with the 4th fewest opponent restricted area shots, although they are only a middle-of-the-road 14th in opponent FG% at the rim. This makes a lot of sense based on their roster and philosophy- they have long, agile bigs who are able to come over and help at the rim, deterring shots there, and then their wings are able to closeout on potential pass-outs, conceding the mid-ranger as a result.
False: The Brooklyn Nets won't make the playoffs
I recently declared the Nets to be my favourite to win the NBA championship based on their huge potential upside. It is clear now that I may have been naive in that assessment- they are obviously not the most likely team to win the finals now, and have lost a lot of championship upside by trading away a superstar in Harden for role players and Ben Simmons (however you want to categorise him), but in the context of the season, it was clearly the best move for the team.
The Nets had been struggling recently, to say the least- they are 2-12 in their last 14 games, and it was clear that Harden had checked out of the team before the trade deadline. With the Harden trade, however, they managed to salvage their season, bringing back another elite shooter to a team starved of shooting in Seth Curry, another valuable body to add to their volatile centre rotation in Andre Drummond as well as 2 first-round picks, which they can use to improve the roster in future trades. They also added Ben Simmons. His value for this team going forwards in their playoff push is extremely hard to quantify, as there are so many unknowns surrounding him- whether he will transform their defence with his elite perimeter defence (I say no), if he will kill their offence with his extreme lack of spacing and fear of getting fouled (potentially), or even if he is even going to play for them at all this season with his public mental health struggles (probably, the Nets know more than us). Ultimately, in evaluating whether they will make the playoffs, it makes more sense to not include the potential impact of Ben Simmons until we actually see it.
So, what does the rest of the season look like for them? They have the 13th hardest remaining strength of schedule (SOS), not bad, but not great. They currently occupy the #8 seed in the West, and although the #11 seed Wizards have little chance of catching them, it is crucial that the Nets don't fall behind either Charlotte or Atlanta in the #9 and #10 respectively, who are only 2.5 games behind the Nets, and although the Hornets have dropped off a cliff recently, going 1-9 in their last 10, the Hawks have sneakily been playing very good basketball and could easily make up ground if the Nets continue to play poorly. There is also the Irving and Durant factors- Kyrie is only available to play in 10 of their next 23 games, and it is unclear when KD will be returning from the MCL injury he sustained in January. It seems unlikely that a Nets team whose best player is either Seth Curry or Patty Mills will be winning too many games.
All of this to say, however, that the Nets are not going to miss this year's playoffs- despite all the chaos and hardship the team has suffered this year, the All-Star break will most likely benefit them more than any other team, allowing the team recharge, regroup, bringing Durant and Simmons closer to a return to the court, and there have been plenty of signals coming from the team that they are ready for a much-improved stretch of play following the break. The recent addition of Goran Dragic should also not be sniffed at, he played at an all-star level in the 2020 playoffs for the Heat, and although it is very unlikely he will be able to play at that level again, he brings some much-needed quality and shooting to this team's rotation. They also have the high-end talent that would make them a favourite in any play-in game, providing they are reasonably healthy, although anything can happen in a single game (just look at what happened with the Grizzlies vs. Warriors last year). Let's hope they prove my optimism correct.
Real: The Lakers are not going to make the playoffs
The Los Angeles Lakers are a trainwreck right now. They are making me look very dumb for even considering them in my championship rankings, and it is clear now that this is a lost season for the worst L.A team. It was clear from the moment they traded for him that Russell Westbrook was going to be a terrible fit next to LeBron James, and it is been even worse than anyone could have imagined. There is a reason he has been benched in the clutch of so many recent games, and even the one plausible reason to acquire Westbrook- to keep the team afloat in games missed by James and Anthony Davis have gone horribly. Westbrook has the worst plus-minus of his career since his rookie season, and he is currently -72 with 84 turnovers in 17 games without LeBron this season. Just imagine how good this team would like with some 3-and-D wings to support LeBron and Davis like, I don't know, Kyle Kuzma or Kentavious Caldwell-Pope?
As much as Lakers fans like to hate on Russ, it is not entirely his fault. After all, it was obvious he would be a terrible fit, and as bad as the Lakers front office have been, it seems clear that it was James and Klutch Sports that pushed for the Westbrook trade, and now that it isn't working out, James has criticised Rob Pelinka and the front office for understandably not mortgaging their entire future in a short-term trade-deadline deal.
Blame can be placed everywhere in the Lakers organisation, but what is clear is that this is a lost season. Although they are almost guaranteed to make the play-in tournament considering the state of the teams behind them, it will almost certainly be as a #9 or #10 seed, and the odds of winning 2 play-in games are extremely unlikely, even if the Lakers will probably have the talent advantage in any individual matchup.
False (Probably): DeMar DeRozan is a top 10 player in the NBA right now
DeMar DeRozan is absolutely playing at an MVP level right now. He has kept the Chicago Bulls afloat while key other key players like Lonzo Ball, Alex Caruso and Zach LaVine have missed extended periods of time, and he is averaging career highs in PPG, BPM, PER, and a very impressive career-high in true shooting percentage- 60.4%. His clutch heroics have also been extremely important- the Bulls are 20-10 in clutch games that DeRozan plays in, and he has a +20 net rating in those minutes, shooting 56% from the field, 66.7% from three (on low volume), and 89% on free throws.
While all of this is to be celebrated, and I hate to be the one to rain on this parade, DeRozan has a history of being an elite regular-season player and then falling off in the playoffs. Until he proves that he can maintain or expand on his production in the playoffs, he is not a top-10 player in the NBA. Furthermore, while his defence has improved this year, he is definitely still not a positive on that end of the floor, and I predict that this will be a large factor in the Bulls being a first-round out in this years' playoffs. However up until now this season, DeRozan and the Bulls have proven me and many other commentators wrong, and I hope that he maintains his production in the playoffs this year and establishes his spot as a superstar in the league. Anyway, enjoy a montage of DeRozan clutch moments this year.
